Thursday, September 24, 2009

Republican Prospects In 2010: A Look At Key Indicators

While ever mindful of the fact that polls can hardly be relied on as an indicator of election results that are still over a year away, I am also mindful of the fact that no one in the blogsphere today is not speculating on GOP prospects next year. And the reason for all of the speculation is because the prospects look so good right now for the Republican Party. If it looked as if next year were going to maintain the status quo, there would be no talk of GOP prospects because they would have none. My point is only that the chatter itself means the prospects are at least fair to midland.

In any case, let us look at some numbers that we can rely on because they require no sample or margin of error. Fundraising trends can tell us a more accurate story of how the electorat s feeling, and right now the Rupublican National Committee is awash in cash after experiencing a big bump in August:
Despite being in the minority in Congress, Republican campaign committees outraised Democrats by $1.7 million in August as they have aggressively collected political cash amid the rancorous debate over health care.
Republicans also held an edge over Democrats in the amount of money available, when counting debts, as both parties set the stage for the 2010 elections, in which more than three dozen competitive House and Senate seats are at stake...

...In the Senate, where Republicans are far outnumbered, their fundraising committee collected $3.1 million last month, compared to $2.2 million by the Democratic committee. It was the second month in a row that the Senate GOP committee outperformed Democrats — bringing its fundraising total for the year to $26.5 million, just $1 million less than the Democrats.

Brian Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the committee has attracted more than 70,000 first-time donors this year as voters grew alarmed by President Obama's policies. "There are a lot of independents who may have voted for Obama who are now saying, 'This type of big government spending is not what we signed up for,' " he said.
This vindicates a recent Gallup poll showing that the GOP image is improving among voters. Take a look at that poll. The most interesting thing isn't the average voters' perception of the Republican party, but the perception of the party by party members themselves. In June support for the GOP among registered Republicans had fallen to 63%. Now it is back to 83% and will likely increase in the coming months.

Michael Barone, one of the best political analysts evah is now openly speculating about a GOP takeover of the House like we saw in 1994, when the Republicans wrestled a historical 52 seats from the Democrats in the House. As Barone points out, Real Clear Politics (a site all of you should be on everyday) currently shows Democrat leading Republicans by only 3 points on the generic ballot. But...:
But there’s a clear difference between the results shown by pollster Scott Rasmussen, who limits his surveys to those he determines to be likely voters, and other pollsters. Rasmussen currently shows Republicans leading 42%-38% and has had them ahead every week since the results he reported June 28—just about the time the House was passing the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill by a 219-212 margin.
This is no small matter. Barone even points to the noted liberal bloggers on who are also seemingly weary of a possible, and even probable Republican resergence in 2010.

Again, I would not normally place so heavy an emphasis on polls. But fundraising numbers do not lie. We will stay on top of those numbers and keep you posted.

1 comment:

  1. The Republicans themselves seemed hushed about this. I wish they'd take a lesson in civics from the town hallers and tea protestors. They don't need to be rude, just vocal and out there with the rest of us. Show up! All we hear is crickets.... I wonder if they'll once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?