Republican Prospects In 2010: A Look At Key Indicators

While ever mindful of the fact that polls can hardly be relied on as an indicator of election results that are still over a year away, I am also mindful of the fact that no one in the blogsphere today is not speculating on GOP prospects next year. And the reason for all of the speculation is because the prospects look so good right now for the Republican Party. If it looked as if next year were going to maintain the status quo, there would be no talk of GOP prospects because they would have none. My point is only that the chatter itself means the prospects are at least fair to midland.

In any case, let us look at some numbers that we can rely on because they require no sample or margin of error. Fundraising trends can tell us a more accurate story of how the electorat s feeling, and right now the Rupublican National Committee is awash in cash after experiencing a big bump in August:

Despite being in the minority in Congress, Republican campaign committees outraised Democrats by $1.7 million in August as they have aggressively collected political cash amid the rancorous debate over health care.
Republicans also held an edge over Democrats in the amount of money available, when counting debts, as both parties set the stage for the 2010 elections, in which more than three dozen competitive House and Senate seats are at stake...

...In the Senate, where Republicans are far outnumbered, their fundraising committee collected $3.1 million last month, compared to $2.2 million by the Democratic committee. It was the second month in a row that the Senate GOP committee outperformed Democrats — bringing its fundraising total for the year to $26.5 million, just $1 million less than the Democrats.

Brian Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the committee has attracted more than 70,000 first-time donors this year as voters grew alarmed by President Obama's policies. "There are a lot of independents who may have voted for Obama who are now saying, 'This type of big government spending is not what we signed up for,' " he said.

This vindicates a recent Gallup poll showing that the GOP image is improving among voters. Take a look at that poll. The most interesting thing isn't the average voters' perception of the Republican party, but the perception of the party by party members themselves. In June support for the GOP among registered Republicans had fallen to 63%. Now it is back to 83% and will likely increase in the coming months.

Michael Barone, one of the best political analysts evah is now openly speculating about a GOP takeover of the House like we saw in 1994, when the Republicans wrestled a historical 52 seats from the Democrats in the House. As Barone points out, Real Clear Politics (a site all of you should be on everyday) currently shows Democrat leading Republicans by only 3 points on the generic ballot. But...:

But there’s a clear difference between the results shown by pollster Scott Rasmussen, who limits his surveys to those he determines to be likely voters, and other pollsters. Rasmussen currently shows Republicans leading 42%-38% and has had them ahead every week since the results he reported June 28—just about the time the House was passing the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill by a 219-212 margin.

This is no small matter. Barone even points to the noted liberal bloggers on www.538.com who are also seemingly weary of a possible, and even probable Republican resergence in 2010.

Again, I would not normally place so heavy an emphasis on polls. But fundraising numbers do not lie. We will stay on top of those numbers and keep you posted.

Thank you Captain Obvious

Writer for the Washington Post Dan Balz writes After a Bruising August, Time for Obama Team to Regroup. To coin a popular phrase "duh". I suspect Mr. Balz will eventually do a follow up article letting us know that the world is indeed not flat.

Obama won the votes of the American people based on a soundbite platform of change. What TeamObama didn't anticipate is the American people pounding on the doors of legislators looking to collect. Nearly every Gallup Poll done within the last few weeks shows Obama's approval rating falling at a rate that should make Rahm Emmanuel put down his fishing pole and reach for the James Carville playbook.

Obama currently faces opposition from both sides of the aisle with former sychophants like Nancy Pelosi challenging the President to return to his "more liberal" roots, especially in the health care reform arena. With the White House officially stating that the public health care options is now off the table, he is receiving heavy criticism from his very insistent base. "They are now threatening to turn the fight for retaining a public option in the bill into a crusade" states Blaz. With all this discontent from his legislative base, the White House staffers would still have the American public believe that their is a great level of cohesion among the left. It's no suprise his approval rating is falling, he can't even get his cronies on the same page.

If the townhalls were any indication of the level of support regarding the public health care option, you'd think the White House would go back to the drawing board rather than take leave for a vay-cay.

"Former Senate majority leader Bob Dole and former Democratic senator Bill Bradley weighed in with advice to the president over the weekend. Bradley said a grand bargain is still possible, but only if Obama is prepared to put tort reform on the table as an enticement to attract Republican support for universal coverage." Tort reform? I'm sure the Harvard Law grad who spent the majority of his career practicing law would be excited about this possible option...oh wait, no that's right Obama is merely a career politician. Whew. That would've been a toughie.

Granted, Obama does not have to worry about elections until 2012, the legislators who are headed back to Washington have the 2010 elections to worry about. After visiting with their irrate constituents they are far less inclined to be the unified "yes men" they once were, thus will be considerably more difficult to work with than they were prior to the August break.

And as such, I'll sit back and watch their return with a smug grin as they attempt to work out the health care issue.

Anyone got any popcorn?