It must have been a cold night last night at the White House as the president and his campaign bosses watched polls roll in from the Arkansas and Kentucky Democrat primaries. My post yesterday detailed my advice to the Romney campaign and called for optimism among the Republican party faithful. The results of yesterday's two primaries are good evidence that there is great reason for optimism.
Just weeks ago, the president was able to scrape together 60 percent of the vote against a convicted felon currently serving a prison sentence in Texas. Embarrassing, sure. But at least until yesterday this strange event might have been written off as an anomoly by the campaign's talking heads. Unfortunately for President Barry, red flags are popping up all over the south. In a two way race in Arkansas the president was still only able to earn 60 percent of the vote against his obscure opponent. For perspective, Mitt Romney won his four-way race in that primary with nearly 70 percent of the vote against three well known opponents.
But none of that is as pleasing than the results of the Kentucky primary where Mr. Obama again clawed his way to 60 percent of the vote, losing 4 in 10 voters to...nobody. In the blue grass state, Democrat primary voters preferred "uncommitted" 4 out of 10 times. Does the fact that these are southern states that would probably vote Republican in November anyway make the outcome any more comforting? They certainly shouldn't. While each of these three states did, in fact, vote Republican in 2008, there are three other southern states that Obama won in 2008 (Florida, Virginia and North Carolina) that could be in play if yeterday's primaries are signs of growing unrest among southern Democrats.
In Florida, where the president won by just 3 points in 2008, the latest poll now shows Mitt Romney leading by six points, due in no small part to the president's recent "evolution" on gay marriage. And in North Carolina, where Mr. Obama won with only 50 percent of the vote four years ago and the DNC plans to hold its nominating convention this year, the state party has been plagued by recent scandal, casting doubt on the president's hopes of building on his 2008 lead.
All of this should give hope to conservative voters who have convinced themselves that Barack Obama isn't beatable this year. The rumors are false. Mitt Romney can win. Indeed, in this political and economic environment, he has no excuse for losing.
Showing posts with label election 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election 2012. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Stay the Course, Mitt
Despite the worried grumblings of some dissatisied Republican primary voters, Mitt Romney's chances of winning the general election this November should give GOPers plenty of optimism. It is, after all, hard to imagine a better scenario to take on an incumbent president. The economy is lagging, unemployment is high, the president's approval numbers are low and the deficit and our national debt is astronomical. The only concern the party faithful should now have in its presumptive nominee is his proven ability to agitate the left and their allies in the media with his occassional offhanded and completely unconscious references to his wealth. This election should be an easy win. However, a victory in November will require a great deal of discipline on the part of Governor Romney and his campaign.
The message this election cycle is simple, and it's borrowed from the left's very own Ragin' Cajun, James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid". Of course, it is. And with little hope that President Obama and his henchmen in the Democrat led Senate will do anything to improve the economy, there can be found little reason for Mr. Romney to talk about much of anything else.
Do not expect that to deter the talking heads from the other side of the aisle or their cheerleaders on the network evening news. Since the beginning of the primary season viewers have been subjected to stories on Mitt Romney's travel habits with his pets, his friends in Nascar, his work as a successful businessman, a mass murder committed 150 years ago and, most recently, his wife's hobby of riding horses. The media found the expenses incurred by that last bit to be newsworthy. Go figure. These, of course, are distractions meant to knock the governor off message. If they succeed, the president will ride the wave of these meaningless stories into a second term.
But that depends on the good governor, who, thus far has managed a campaign focused squarely on the economy and job creation. But one issue has resurfaced that may cause Romney to stumble. When the gaffe prone Vice President forced President Obama to admit he supports gay marriage, a contentios and contemporary issue was resurrected in the American electoral consciousness. Mr. Romney was thus forced to restate his position on gay marriage; a position growing less and less popular as the months and years roll by. And, as required, he restated his position and left it at that.
Wrong answer, Mr. Romney. Nevermind the conservative principles underlying anyone's support of gay marriage. The correct answer to that question was, "I still support marriage between one man and one woman. But the fact is gay people are living in this economy too. Gay people are standing in unemployment lines right next to straight people. I want to put all Americans back to work. That is my focus as president." Instead of making his economic message resonate with gay and lesbian Americans, Mr. Romney allowed himself to be dragged into a hotly debated social issue. While he cannot afford to not comment on the president's "evolution" on the issue, he also cannot afford to allow himself to be blown off message because of the Vice President's big mouth.
You're doing fine, Mitt. Just stay the course.
The message this election cycle is simple, and it's borrowed from the left's very own Ragin' Cajun, James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid". Of course, it is. And with little hope that President Obama and his henchmen in the Democrat led Senate will do anything to improve the economy, there can be found little reason for Mr. Romney to talk about much of anything else.
Do not expect that to deter the talking heads from the other side of the aisle or their cheerleaders on the network evening news. Since the beginning of the primary season viewers have been subjected to stories on Mitt Romney's travel habits with his pets, his friends in Nascar, his work as a successful businessman, a mass murder committed 150 years ago and, most recently, his wife's hobby of riding horses. The media found the expenses incurred by that last bit to be newsworthy. Go figure. These, of course, are distractions meant to knock the governor off message. If they succeed, the president will ride the wave of these meaningless stories into a second term.
But that depends on the good governor, who, thus far has managed a campaign focused squarely on the economy and job creation. But one issue has resurfaced that may cause Romney to stumble. When the gaffe prone Vice President forced President Obama to admit he supports gay marriage, a contentios and contemporary issue was resurrected in the American electoral consciousness. Mr. Romney was thus forced to restate his position on gay marriage; a position growing less and less popular as the months and years roll by. And, as required, he restated his position and left it at that.
Wrong answer, Mr. Romney. Nevermind the conservative principles underlying anyone's support of gay marriage. The correct answer to that question was, "I still support marriage between one man and one woman. But the fact is gay people are living in this economy too. Gay people are standing in unemployment lines right next to straight people. I want to put all Americans back to work. That is my focus as president." Instead of making his economic message resonate with gay and lesbian Americans, Mr. Romney allowed himself to be dragged into a hotly debated social issue. While he cannot afford to not comment on the president's "evolution" on the issue, he also cannot afford to allow himself to be blown off message because of the Vice President's big mouth.
You're doing fine, Mitt. Just stay the course.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Rick Santorum: The GOP's Surest Path to Defeat
Purity. The word takes on a double meaning in the world of electoral politics. Within the Republican Party especially, the struggle between those searching for ideological purity and those carving out more practical, nuanced positions can be both entertaining and horrifying to watch. For the typical Evangelical/Tea-party activist, the word takes on a a very positive tone; such as "purified drinking water". On the other hand is the establishment who, when faced with the word, hears something far closer to the "race purification" doctrine espoused by the Fuhrer.
Unfortunately, the former is winning out in our party. Practicality and electability have taken a back seat to an ideological predictability that is so bold and disconnected with the American people as to virtually guarantee electoral defeat in November. In their one way tunnel of thought, the answers of our party brethren are always the same and never vary: Abortion? It's always wrong and never ok in any circumstance. Ever. At all. Gay marriage? It's destroying the country and threatening our children. Defense spending? No cuts, for any reason, at any time. Ever. Taxes? Get rid of 'em. The poor? Lazy. Women? Home makers. The courts? A beacon of truth and reason when we agree, activist and overreaching when we do not.
The purists can come no closer to a perfect candidate than Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania, who today is threatening the once seemingly inevitable nomination of Mitt Romney. And, of course, the problems with his candidacy are as predictable as his socially conservative, devoutly Catholic politics. He has compared homosexuality to polygamy and incest. He has said that women being allowed in combat rolls raises certain "emotional concerns". He has said that homosexuals should not be allowed to serve openly in the military. He has said contraception is dangerous to women. He has raised questions regarding the moral integrity of mothers who choose to have careers rather than be career mothers.
Regardless of how one actually feels about these issues, there is a skill in politics that good politicians learn, and learn fast. The art of learning when to shut one's mouth can be a very helpful skill. Only ideologues possess the kind of self righteous chutzpah required to actually say they believe homosexuals are as dangerous as men who have sex with their daughters or that working mothers are, somehow, subpar.
Needless to say, these issues would be unimportant if Americans at large actually agreed with Rick Santorum. The problem, of course, is that they do not. If the GOP is willing to nominate a man so comfortably out of the mainstream on these very sensitive issues then it is prepared to lose one of the most consequential elections in a generation. In the pursuit of everything these purists will gain nothing and insure the president's reelection.
It has been said, often grudgingly, that the establishment always wins in the nominating process. Let's hope that it does this time, at least.
Unfortunately, the former is winning out in our party. Practicality and electability have taken a back seat to an ideological predictability that is so bold and disconnected with the American people as to virtually guarantee electoral defeat in November. In their one way tunnel of thought, the answers of our party brethren are always the same and never vary: Abortion? It's always wrong and never ok in any circumstance. Ever. At all. Gay marriage? It's destroying the country and threatening our children. Defense spending? No cuts, for any reason, at any time. Ever. Taxes? Get rid of 'em. The poor? Lazy. Women? Home makers. The courts? A beacon of truth and reason when we agree, activist and overreaching when we do not.
The purists can come no closer to a perfect candidate than Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania, who today is threatening the once seemingly inevitable nomination of Mitt Romney. And, of course, the problems with his candidacy are as predictable as his socially conservative, devoutly Catholic politics. He has compared homosexuality to polygamy and incest. He has said that women being allowed in combat rolls raises certain "emotional concerns". He has said that homosexuals should not be allowed to serve openly in the military. He has said contraception is dangerous to women. He has raised questions regarding the moral integrity of mothers who choose to have careers rather than be career mothers.
Regardless of how one actually feels about these issues, there is a skill in politics that good politicians learn, and learn fast. The art of learning when to shut one's mouth can be a very helpful skill. Only ideologues possess the kind of self righteous chutzpah required to actually say they believe homosexuals are as dangerous as men who have sex with their daughters or that working mothers are, somehow, subpar.
Needless to say, these issues would be unimportant if Americans at large actually agreed with Rick Santorum. The problem, of course, is that they do not. If the GOP is willing to nominate a man so comfortably out of the mainstream on these very sensitive issues then it is prepared to lose one of the most consequential elections in a generation. In the pursuit of everything these purists will gain nothing and insure the president's reelection.
It has been said, often grudgingly, that the establishment always wins in the nominating process. Let's hope that it does this time, at least.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
The Implosion of Newt Gingrich
I can think of several reasons to oppose the candidacy of Newt Gingrich for the Republican nomination. From the mismanagement of his campaign thus far to his lack of any real organization on the ground and no money to speak of to his questionable ethics both in his professional and private life, there are numerous red flags being raised warning us of what a Gingrich presidency might look like. Exhibit A, however, is his arrogance and the anger management issues that come with it.
Last night, after losing to Mitt Romney in Nevada, the former Speaker of the House decided not to host a party and give a speech, as is traditional in these cases. Instead, the Speaker chose to hold a press conference in which he attempted to do what he does best; chastise the media and blame his campaign's failure on Mitt Romney's "dishonesty", calling him a "Soros candidate". The episode quickly disintegrated into an episode of a man desperate for any explanation of his poor performance other than his own inability to raise money, earn support and organize a GOTV campaign. Former GOP House leader Dick Armey, now Chairman of Freedome Works, has pity for Newt, but still calls Newt what he is, namely, a sore loser:
Of course, Newt's problem is not that he's incapable of being president. It's not that he is a poor debater. Nor is his problem that he is not intelligent or an important conservative thinker. Newt's problem is that he's not as smart or effective as he thinks he is, and after two subpar debate performances in Florida people are beginning to figure that out. If Newt Gingrich wants to have any chance of being competitive in this race again, he'd better figure that out for himself, and soon. Politics requires a certain arrogance if you are going to survive in the mine field of elected public life. But it also requires more humility, or at least feigned humility. Newt has neither feigned nor actual humility (which one might find odd for a man on his third wife).
The simple truth is that arrogance, not a determined desire to be president, is what is driving Newt's campaign. His over the top rhetoric as he grapples to explain to himself why he is losing is only making it worse. More from Mr. Armey:
It's time for Mr. Gingrich to take a page out of Mr. Romney's 2008 play book and step aside and make way for the GOP nominee.
Last night, after losing to Mitt Romney in Nevada, the former Speaker of the House decided not to host a party and give a speech, as is traditional in these cases. Instead, the Speaker chose to hold a press conference in which he attempted to do what he does best; chastise the media and blame his campaign's failure on Mitt Romney's "dishonesty", calling him a "Soros candidate". The episode quickly disintegrated into an episode of a man desperate for any explanation of his poor performance other than his own inability to raise money, earn support and organize a GOTV campaign. Former GOP House leader Dick Armey, now Chairman of Freedome Works, has pity for Newt, but still calls Newt what he is, namely, a sore loser:
Armey said that Gingrich’s criticisms of Romney were not helpful for either the GOP in November or Gingrich’s own campaign during an interview on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “I feel bad for him. I think he’s digressed into a state of taking a second-rate campaign and turning it into a first-rate vendetta,” said Armey
Of course, Newt's problem is not that he's incapable of being president. It's not that he is a poor debater. Nor is his problem that he is not intelligent or an important conservative thinker. Newt's problem is that he's not as smart or effective as he thinks he is, and after two subpar debate performances in Florida people are beginning to figure that out. If Newt Gingrich wants to have any chance of being competitive in this race again, he'd better figure that out for himself, and soon. Politics requires a certain arrogance if you are going to survive in the mine field of elected public life. But it also requires more humility, or at least feigned humility. Newt has neither feigned nor actual humility (which one might find odd for a man on his third wife).
The simple truth is that arrogance, not a determined desire to be president, is what is driving Newt's campaign. His over the top rhetoric as he grapples to explain to himself why he is losing is only making it worse. More from Mr. Armey:
“I thought that last night was really sad for him,” said Armey about Gingrich’s Saturday speech. “Quite frankly again so much of Newt’s whole life is overstated, he overstates the case in such a hyperbolic fashion, it just looks vindictive.”And that's what it is.
It's time for Mr. Gingrich to take a page out of Mr. Romney's 2008 play book and step aside and make way for the GOP nominee.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Less Than A Year And Already Less Popular Than Hillary. Ouch.
"Why do people hate you?" asked little Terrance to the President of the United States. His answer is the most interesting part of the conversation, however:
Well, now, first of all. I did get elected president, so not everyone hates me, nah. I got a whole lotta votes. I wanna make sure everyone understands.Here, once again, we witness the president dismissing honest disagreement and opposition to his ultra left wing government takeover to being "poke(d) a little bit" so that we can "keep him on his toes". Or, as he more succinctly puts it, it's just "politics".
Let us, for a moment, study the president's assertion that not everyone hates him. After all, he did get a whole lotta votes! The latest Fox News Poll show less than 50% of Americans would vote for Barack Obama if an election were held today. As a matter of fact, its not even close to 50%. It's 43%. Dayum, Barry. Dayum.
In what may be the ultimate job rating, 43 percent of voters say that they would vote to re-elect President Obama if the 2012 election were held today, down from 52 percent six months ago, from April 22-23, 2009.Well, hey, I mean 43% isn't that bad. Come to think of it, that's just about the same share of the vote that Bill Clinton won in 1992. Of course, that was back before Democrats pretended to care that sometimes president's get elected without a "clear majority".
Obama's job approval rating comes in at 49 percent this week. That's down just one percentage point from late September, but it marks a new low approval for the president -- and the first time the Fox News poll has measured his approval below 50 percent.
Anyway. That FNC Poll is not the only problem Mr. Obama is facing in the polls. Despite her declaration that she will not run again, no one can write off the political calculation of one Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama's Secretary of State and former Democrat primary rival. I can't help but see her as miserable every time she is on television. We would be kidding ourselves to believe she would never consider another primary challenge to her new boss, especially given that Gallup now shows that she is more popular than the president himself, a fact that must have her licking her chops in anticipation of an inner-party "Draft Hillary" moment:
Gallup points out that in this latest survey, Hillary Clinton is now more popular than Obama. Sixty-two percent say they have a favorable impression of the Secretary of State, versus 34 percent who have an unfavorable impression. That's a big change from the height of the battle for the Democratic nomination last year; in February 2008, just 48 percent had a favorable impression of Mrs. Clinton, versus 49 percent who had an unfavorable impression.Frankly, the only thing more fun than watching those two duke it out again would be the laugh-out-loud hillarious spectacle the entire Democrat party would put on as they simultaneously try to cast Republicans as racist for opposing the reelection of the first black president while nursing a large faction within their own party that doesn't want him there, either. Why, it would be like conservative political porn!
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